- No ‘Trump-Kim’ meet can be a solution
By Maj Gen (Dr.) Ashok Kumar, VSM (Retired)
New Delhi. 22 February 2024. The Korean peninsula occupies a strategic geographic location with deep interests from USA, Russia and China. These three countries are also jostling for their supremacy in the Korean peninsula region as well as in all other conflict prone regions of the world.
It is a well-known fact that two parts of the Korean peninsula viz North Korea and South Korea fought intense battles from 1950 to 1953. All this started when North Korea invaded South Korea on 25 Jun 1950 to unify both the portions of Korean peninsula under its communist regime. It was actively supported by Russia as well as China, both being the communist countries. As against this, South Korea was supported by USA championing the democratic form of the Government.
Finally, a Demilitarized zone (DMZ) was agreed along the 38th Parallel between these two parts of the Korean peninsula. Though the war came to an end but no ‘peace treaty’ could be signed, a state which continues even till date. In real sense, a state of ‘frozen conflict’ exists between both these nations which is prone to eruption at any point of time.
And sadly, this eruption has started and that too from the North Korean side. On one hand, it has been developing long range missiles including those which can be nuclear armed whereas on the other hand, it has been developing and launching satellites in the space. Unlike other countries which are also developing long range nuclear capable missiles and the satellites, North Korea has already developed the art of orating sustained statements being given regularly wherein it clearly declares its intentions and these intentions are aimed at South Korea, USA and their close allies. It is towards this that North Korean state head Kim Jong Un asked the lawmakers of his country to re-visit the constitution of the country to declare South Korea as its ‘primary adversary’. This event is of as late as that of 15 Jan 24. It is a well-known fact that that Kim Jong Un is a hard-core dictator and North Korean ‘Supreme Assembly’ is merely a rubber stamp and everything will be accorded ‘legal cover’ whatever is desired by Kim Jong Un in North Korea. This is not the stand-alone event. This has been preceded by firing of missiles and the artillery as well. In fact, artillery firing has been done in the DMZ with the aim to provoke South Korea disrupting the fragile peace.
Division of a country in two type of regimes ie one being communist and the other being democracy is nothing new. It was in the case of Germany wherein it was divided into two parts, East Germany and West Germany. East Germany was a communist country whereas West Germany was a vibrant democracy. Both of these united on 03 Oct 1990 in the form of a Democratic Government and are still flourishing. Another example relates to Vietnam wherein North Vietnam and South Vietnam were its primary constituents. North Vietnam was a communist country whereas South Vietnam was a democracy. Both of these united to form the current day Vietnam on 02 Jul 1976 and they adopted the communist form of the Government. It is therefore a given fact that the separated part of the countries can unite and they can select the form of Government more acceptable to their people.
Now one has to look towards the Korean peninsula. North Korea is not only having a communist regime but is also being led by a dictator. As against this, South Korea is a vibrant democracy flourishing in an unparalleled manner. There is wide economic disparity between both the Korean nations. South Korea was lagging behind economically as compared to North Korea at the end of Korean War as North Korea was more industrialised as compared to South Korea but South Korea developed itself economically and by the end of 2022, South Korean economy is close to 60 times stronger than the North Korean economy.
While there has been ‘on’ and ‘off’ efforts to unify both the Koreas as a single nation but that has been thwarted by the countries having their major stakes in these countries to include USA, Russia and China. The statement of North Korean head of state on 15 Jan 24 therefore made a clear mention of this aspect wherein it sees South Korea advancing its efforts to absorb North Korea in a unified Korea in a democratic form of a government. Invariably, integration of fractured nations has been successful only when they have been integrated as against being absorbed by the apparent powerful part. There is nothing known in the open domain which suggests any such attempt by South Korea to absorb North Korea into it and it appears merely a new narrative of the North Korea. All these utterances of Kim Jong Un and his actions appear to be aimed at widening the rift in the Korean peninsula.
The deliberate widening of this rift has distinct motives on the part of North Korea. These is no doubt that North Korea is in ‘open support’ of Russia and China who themselves are following their ‘no Limit friendship’ developed in the run up to the Russia-Ukraine war. North Korean leader’s visit to Russia in Sep 23 was followed by supply of Arms and ammunition to Russia as reported in certain circles. The emergence of new axis in form of Russia-China-North Korea appears to be a bulwark against the trilateral security cooperation of USA, South Korea and Japan.
The regional conflicts are not only limited to Russia-Ukraine war and Hamas-Israel war but are also spreading like a wild fire in Gulf & West Asian regions, Surprisingly, USA and its allies are being opposed by Russia, China and their allies in all such ongoing conflicts with no ‘principle based’ conduct by any side.
The widening of rift in Korean peninsula initiated and spearheaded by North Korean leader appears to be a well thought out plan with support of Russia and China. It is a potential flash point ready to be ignited at any moment. This development has serious implications for India as well.
The North Korea has been aggressive not only towards South Korea but also towards Japan and other countries. Its firing of guns, rockets and missiles towards South Korea and the seas adjacent to Japan and other countries are indicative of its conflict intent. It remains to be seen whether these provocative military actions are being conducted on its own or on the behest of China, the latter being more probable.
It is a well-known fact that North Korea has been armed by China since beginning including supply of missile technology defying the international norms. Many of North Korean overtures are to further the expansionist agenda of the China. Even in the current state, whether this increasing intensity is intended to dissipate the USA and its allies by drawing them in the Korean conflict or a larger conflict canvas to include the Chinese absorption of the Taiwan, will unfold in the days ahead.
Challenges for India are also going to be pretty complex as one of its most trusted partners, Russia will be on our opposing side wherein it may take a decision to support China in a fight against the USA and its allies. A close watch on the Korean peninsula is therefore an inescapable necessity and a strategic imperative.
(Maj Gen Ashok Kumar, VSM (Retd) is a Kargil war veteran and defence analyst. He is senior fellow of CLAWS and specialises on neighbouring countries with special focus on China. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com).
