New Delhi. 30 March 2025. Standing on the ringside as an observer to the imbroglio that presently engulfs the prospects peace or the absence of it in the Russo-Ukraine war, one cannot help but notice, President Putin standing tall.
Marathon talks going on between US, Russia and US Ukraine to find peace which still eludes[i]; EU nations relentlessly engaging in their own talks/ affirmations of solidarity/ pledges to stand with Ukraine etc. (all these to probably remain relevant and eventually get a seat on the negotiating table with US and warring nations) while on the battlefield, the warring parties relentlessly escalating attacks every single day to get to their ‘best stance’ before peace may descend (if at all), it is indeed uncertain future.
Be that as it may, if there is one person who is in no hurry to hasten the peace process, it is President Vladimir Putin. Let us go back to the night of 23/24 Feb 2022 when Russia commenced the current offensive with a deadly pre-emptive strike.
While that strike, which neither succeeded fully in killing a sizeable chunk of Ukrainian air assets on ground nor effectively taking out the might of their air defences, it made it clear all the same that the main cause of the Russian fury was the deadly eastward expansion of NATO which was threating to take into its fold Ukraine thus making way for the NATO’s military might to be poised right at the door steps of Kremlin.
Where are we on NATO?
- On 12 Feb 2025, US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth stated that ‘Kyiv joining the NATO is unrealistic’.
- In his first ever Cabinet meeting post his election President Trump reportedly stated that ‘Ukraine can forget about joining NATO.
- President Zelenskyy’s offer in Feb 2025 to step down and give up Presidency for exchange of NATO membership fell on deaf years.
- President Putin has categorically demanded that Ukraine must abandon its NATO ambition as pre-conditions for even starting the peace process consideration.
- Given all that is stated above, all other previous positions like Ukraine being on a ‘path to join NATO’; or the statement by former NATO Secretary General that ‘Russia would not be able to veto Ukraine’s accession to NATO’become irrelevant.
- Does that imply that as things stand Ukrainian NATO dreams are effectively out of the window? No prizes for guessing the answer.
Let us now visit the issue of occupied Ukrainian territories by the Russian forces.
As is well known, this occupation process actually commenced with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Feb/Mar 2014 following the Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity and resulted in Russia annexing the Crimean peninsula.
Starting 2022, the occupation of Ukrainian lands continued in the eastern Donbas region as the current offensive panned out. As of 2024 Russia is in occupation of some 112000 sq km of Ukrainian land that roughly accounts for over 20% of Ukraine.
Compare the above with the Ukrainian hold in the Kursk region of Russia.
- At its peak, after the surprise incursion in Kursk, Ukrainians were in control of some 1200 sq km of Russian land that accounted for 93 villages.
- According to recent reports, this territorial grab is now reduced to some 450 sq km.
- If the current reports of the Russian commanders are to be believed. even this foothold is fast shrinking. Russia has claimed that it is fully in control of the situation in Kursk and the Ukrainian forces therein will either be destroyed or pushed out of Russian land. This in a way sounds in unison with the accounts of Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines in Kursk or the ones that have returned as war-disabled.
What is the likely future of the occupied territories?
- In Feb 2025, Russia categorically rejected swapping any territory that it occupied in Eastern Donbas region with its own territory held by Ukraine in the Kursk region.
- In Feb 2025 again, US secretary of Defence stated at a NATO Summit that returning to pre-2014 borders with Russia is an ‘unrealistic objective’ for Ukraine. He added that chasing this illusionary goal will only end up prolonging the war, causing more sufferings.
- As recent as 25 Mar 2025, Russia has reportedly sought full control over four Ukrainian regions, namely, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Interestingly, while these regions are only partially occupied by Russia as of now but it has demanded that these be ‘fully reverted’ into the Russian administrative borders.
- On 12 Mar 2025, President Zelenskyy has stated Ukraine won’t recognise occupied territories as Russian as a part of any peace deal.
While the headlong collision in a ‘NO GO’ scenario is hard to miss in the above statements, the point to ponder is; who is likely to prevail given the current situation of US closing the tap on further aid, Europe not sufficient to stand for Ukraine all of its own, Russians making gains on an everyday basis and hitting the Ukrainians hard, Kursk gains fast slipping out as loose sand…. again no prizes for guessing.
These diametrically opposing stands will further evaporate any hopes for a quick peace deal. No wonder therefore that marathon negotiations in Riyadh that have extended for days now have failed to even produce a joint statement, leave alone a peace deal. President Putin is in no hurry and President Trump’s magic of ending the war in 24 hrs/60 days is fast evaporating.
In fact a US intelligence report of Mar 2025 has revealed that none of the two warring parties are even interested to ending the war!
A word now on the security guarantees
President Zelenskyy has been categorical and firm on two points:
1. His pre-condition for peace is the firm security guarantee for Ukraine.
2. His conviction that such a security guarantee will not be real without the US involvement.
While that is the President’s stand, the same does not seem to be getting anywhere. Following facts point towards this assertion:-
- Not only US has categorically denied sending aid or providing any security guarantee, they are pushing hard to get a hand on the rare earth minerals ( and lately all natural resources) of Ukraine towards the ‘payment’ of what has already been provided as aid to Ukraine. It cannot get more unreal and harsh than this on Ukraine!
- In quite a contrast to the above, the so called ‘Coalition of the willing; a grouping of 31 European countries has not only pledged support to Ukraine against Russian aggression, but also, is ready to be a part of peacekeeping force as and when ( if at all) it gets to be deployed in Ukraine for safeguarding peace.
- As this is being written this coalition led by France and UK is mulling over how to provide more aid to Ukraine and also provide security (read security guarantee) to Ukraine after a possible cease fire in with Russia.
Just how ‘impossible’ is this ‘possibility’ is briefly stated:
- The harsh reality over the last 3+ years has been that the sum of the parts constituted by full-scale US aid+ the aid from the EU + aid through bilateral arrangement with various European countries counted on one side has not been able to ensure Ukraine’s upping the edge in the war with Russia. On the contrary, with all the above stacked against it Russia has made and continues to make steady gains, of course not without taking tremendous manpower and equipment losses.
- To imagine that all the previous aid package less the biggest erstwhile aid-giver ( US) will stand a chance against the Russians is to think the impossible.
- The irony is that it the Ukrainian President himself has stated multiple times that security without US is not ‘real’.
- As to hopes of peacekeeping, Russia has categorically denied any NATO forces in Ukraine.
- In fact President Putin has raised serious concerns on how the ceasefire (if any) will be monitored and what is the guarantee that the proposed 30 days truce will not be used by Ukraine to build up forces for a prolonged fight? No answers.
That brings us to figure out the scenario regarding security guarantee for the victor:
- Weak security guarantee for Ukraine.
- No NATO peacekeepers accepted in Ukraine.
- The ‘coalition of the willing’ in their latest and on-going round of talks are trying the same old techniques of sanctions and more sanctions on Russia and hoping for an outcome that gets Russia to accept the ceasefire terms. How unreal!
- The irony is that the coalition itself knows very well that their efforts will remain sub-optimal if the biggest guarantor of security the US does not come around to support the Ukrainian cause.
As the story continues to develop, here are some sign off points:
- As stated, the US is continuously increasing the scope of its greed, the mineral deal now includes not only the minerals but all natural resources managed by State and private enterprises over which US wants to have a control.
- The wealth generated from the above is to be taken away by US as payments towards the US aid provided since the war began.
- Russia on the other hand has demanded that Zelenskyy must step aside and the peace process be overseen by a transitional govt/ UN run administration that makes way for an early election to usher in a democratically elected regime in Kyiv before any peace talks can begin.
As things stand now, there are only bad options for Ukraine, one worse than the other and for President Putin, the caption of this work, ‘the winner takes it all’ defines the sense of the moment in a situation that is fast developing.
(Lt. Gen.(Dr.)VK Saxena (Retd.) is a Delhi-based defence analyst former Director General Army Air Defence. He is a Distinguished Fellow at VIF and a Visiting Fellow at CLAWS. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com).
