- China and Pakistan Tighten Grip on Bangladesh—Should India Be Concerned?
- Is it the Rise of a New Regional Power Play?
- Is it India’s Diplomatic Dilemma?
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 17 March 2025. The evolving geopolitical dynamics in South Asia have raised concerns in India, particularly with the deepening ties between Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan. The recent developments, including Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus’ upcoming visit to China and growing military cooperation with Pakistan, suggest a strategic shift that could impact regional security. With Sheikh Hasina’s ousting, Bangladesh’s political landscape has undergone significant transformation, leading to increasing Chinese and Pakistani influence. Given India’s historical ties with Dhaka, the question arises: should New Delhi be worried about this emerging axis?
Muhammad Yunus the Chief Advisor to the Interim Bangladesh Government has announced that he would be visiting China in last week of March. Yunus took over as head of the Bangladesh government on 07 August 2024, when Sheikh Hasina the elected Prime Minister of Bangladesh had to flee because of two days violent protests by students, radicals and opposition parties. In China Yunus would attend the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) conference in Hainan province. The BFA had initially 25 Asian countries and Australia, however in 2006 the number was increased to 28 countries. It is a non-profit organisation which hosts high-level forums for leaders from government, business and academia in Asia and other continents to share their vision on the most pressing issues in this region and the world at large.
Yunus announced his decision to visit China immediately after the 22-member delegation consisting of political leaders, journalists, academics, student leaders who led the agitation against Sheikh Hasina and civil society activists returned from China after a 10-day tour. As China is enhancing its influence in Bangladesh it is expected that Chinese President Xi Jinping would also meet Yunus during the visit. Yunus announced his Chinese visit two days after India raised the issue of the oppression of minorities including Hindus in Bangladesh in United Nations Human Rights Council session in Geneva. India also referred UN fact-finding report which mentioned that minorities faced “revenge violence” in Bangladesh. Delhi raised this issue as hundreds of Hindus were tortured, their homes and places of worship were plundered and destroyed after Sheikh Hasina was forced to leave the country.
The 22 member Bangladeshi delegation was led by Abdul Moyeen Khan, a senior leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) which is the main political party in the country after Awami League (AL). The delegation members met senior functionaries of Communist Party of China, government officials, journalists and others. China is taking advantage of rising diplomatic tensions between India and Bangladesh. The tension is growing on few issues including the extradition request of Sheikh Hasina by Bangladesh. Khan mentioned that it was a goodwill visit which was organised on the initiative of China.
Yunus government requested Indian government to extradite Sheikh Hasina as she is facing charges against humanity, money laundering, murder etc. Sheikh Hasina denies these charges and India is not expected to extradite her. India and Bangladesh had cordial relations during the rule of Hasina as her detractors allege that she was pro-India.
Sheikh Hasina got lukewarm treatment during her last visit to China. Xi Jinping met her only for 10 minutes and did not give the promised financial assistance to her. Government controlled newspapers also not gave required coverage to her visit. After the fall of Hasina, China heightened its interaction with leaders of Bangladesh political parties especially BNP and Islamic parties, journalists, activists, government officers including military senior officers. Bangladeshi Foreign policy advisor Touhid Hossain also visited Beijing in January and met Chinese Foreign Minister and others. As BNP is an important political party, China has invited BNP leaders last year as well as in 2025. The bilateral trade between both the countries is about $24 billion and Beijing is the biggest trading partner of Dacca. The Bangladesh military imports about 70% of its equipment and weaponry from China.
Chinese military supply includes VT-5 light tanks, MBT-2000 Type 90-II, F-7 BGI fighter interceptors, Ming-class diesel-electric attack submarines, Shadhinota-class C13B corvettes, and, HQ-7 short-range surface-to-air missiles. China also allowed Bangladesh to produce few Chinese small and light weapons. Dacca purchases Chinese weaponry as it is low-priced, it is easy to purchase and Bangladeshi officers have experience of using Chinese weapon systems. China has also funded and developed several infrastructure projects in Bangladesh. Besides internal disturbances Bangladesh is also projecting that it has external threat from Myanmar and relations with India are also not very friendly. Hence it is expected that Dacca would like to modernise its defence forces and its dependence on China would increase.
On the other hand, India has limited interaction with Yunus government as few government advisers criticised India while BNP had a protest demonstration in December alleging that India is interfering in the internal affairs of the country by sheltering Hasina. India also reacted sharply and Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar mentioned that Bangladesh has to decide “what kind of relationship they want with us.” Few analysts claim that if India would adopt a stringent attitude, the Yunus government would become more closer to Beijing and Islamabad.
India is unhappy because of developing close relations between Bangladesh and China as Beijing tries to surround India especially in the Indian Ocean and pursues the policy of “String of Pearls.” China is developing bases in Hainan Island (China), Gwadar Port (Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka) and Sittwe (Myanmar). The defence cooperation between China and Bangladesh is cause of concern to India. In 2002 when Khalida Zia was Prime Minister of the country, China and Bangladesh had signed a Defence Cooperation Agreement. In 2009 Sheikh Hasina modernised defence forces with the help of Beijing. Delhi is concerned as the present interim government, the main political party BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami are anti-India.
Besides these Pakistan’s Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) on its own as well as on behest of China is also enhancing its influence in Bangladesh. ISI is enhancing its network in Bangladesh with well-planned strategy of weakening India. ISI is getting patronage and support from Muhammad Yunus and it is penetrating in Bangladesh through maritime routes. The ships starting from Pakistan reaches Bangladesh with weapons and narcotics. ISI operations are funded through the smuggling of contraband drugs to India while weapons are given to Indian insurgent groups of North Eastern States of India through the porous borders of Bangladesh. ISI agents recruit and train Biharis as well as Rohingya Muslims residing in Bangladesh. These marginalised people are given weapons training and are radicalised against India and Hindus. ISI is developing a network of people so that cross border operations are conducted. ISI supplies arms and ammunition to the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) through Hizb-ut-Tahrir and their trained agents. These ARSA workers attack Arakan Army in Myanmar while few of them are used for conducting terrorist activities in India.
The ISI operators are also using social media for intimidating and threatening Hindu population in Bangladesh and blame them as Indian agents. In short run the social media propaganda demoralises minority community while in long run it would not only infuse fear but it would affect the cohesion between Muslims and minorities. Yunus met Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif in September & December where both expressed willingness to strengthen trade and other ties between both the countries.
About a month back a four-member delegation of senior officers of ISI visited Dacca and met senior military and intelligence officers of Bangladesh. After this visit a six-member delegation of senior Bangladesh military officers visited Pakistan. ISI Chief Lt Gen Asim Malik also visited Dacca and there he was received by Lt Gen Muhammad Faizur Rahman, Quarter Master General (QMG) of the Bangladesh Army. Reports suggest that Lt. General Rehman is fundamentalist and he has close ties with Islamic radicals. A Bangladeshi warship also participated in a multinational naval exercise which was hosted by Islamabad.
The unholy nexus developing between Bangladesh and Pakistan on the name of military cooperation and intelligence sharing is dangerous for India. The severity of the nexus enhances manifold as China which has close relations with Pakistan is strengthening its influence in Bangladesh after ousting of Sheikh Hasina.
Bangladesh also wants to reduce its dependence on India hence it wants to increase its relations with Islamabad as well as Beijing. Although BNP which is an important political party of Bangladesh sent feelers that it wants to have cordial relations with India but in past when BNP was in power ISI was training and infiltrating terrorists to India through Bangladesh. The Indian security forces have intercepted suspicious wireless messages in Arabic, Urdu and Bengali. The possibility that ISI operators are sending coded messages to their agents cannot be ruled out. Recently ISI delegation also visited Rangpur in Bangladesh which is near the chicken neck corridor.
India being a bigger player in the region should not be upset with rising influence of Pakistan and China on Bangladesh. India should try to inculcate cordial relations with interim government and should assure that Delhi is not averse if BNP comes to power. India should also try to assess the position of Awami League as well as of Sheikh Hasina and her son who is staying abroad. India should also try to convince USA, Europe and Britain that if influence of China enhances in Bangladesh it would be difficult for them all, hence they should also use their sway so that Dacca is saved from the undue influence of China and Pakistan.
Besides these efforts India should also enhance its border security so that illegal infiltration can be stopped. India should also make sincere efforts so that anti-India sentiments are lessened. Yunus understands that President Trump would not help him as President Biden was helping. Internally also BNP, students, JEI all want early elections. Bangladesh Army Chief also clearly mentioned that army does not want to involve itself in internal duties hence the interim government should also hold early elections.
The economic condition of the country is worsening which is also a great problem for the interim government. Hence Yunus wants to have cordial relations with India and desired to meet Prime Minister Modi in the sidelines of BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok in April. In a recent interview to BBC Yunus mentioned about the historical ties between India and Bangladesh and stated that news about any tension between both the countries is a misinformation. India may adopt a policy of wait and watch as large majority of Bangladeshis feel that relations with Pakistan would be harmful for the country. Bangladesh is dependent on India for several things and would not spoil its relations with India because of Pakistan or China.
The growing engagement between Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan presents a complex challenge for India. While Dhaka’s interim government seeks to diversify its strategic alliances, Beijing’s increasing influence and ISI’s activities in the region could have long-term security implications for New Delhi. India must balance diplomacy with vigilance—maintaining dialogue with Bangladesh while strengthening border security and monitoring geopolitical shifts. The upcoming BIMSTEC Summit could offer an opportunity for India to reassert its strategic position and ensure that Bangladesh does not drift entirely into Beijing and Islamabad’s sphere of influence.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
