- Delhi & Moscow are not drifting towards rival camps
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 19 July 2024. Has Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi been treading on a thin fragile rope of balancing India’s act in world geopolitics today? His two-days visit to Russia cleared quite a lot of air over rumours of changed Indo-Russian ties from strong to weak.
Modi on one hand has been trying to lessen the western distrust on India and on the other hand, this trip has demonstrated to Putin that Russia and India are still all-weather friends. “No matter how low the temperature dips below zero degrees during Russian winter, India-Russia friendship has always remained in ‘plus’ and been full of warmth. This relationship is built on the strong foundation of mutual trust and mutual respect,” Modi said.
On the face of it the world felt that both the friendly nations were drifting towards rival camps. The dependency of Russia on China has visibly growing because of multiple sanctions imposed by west on Russia. China Russia bilateral trade has enhanced to $240 billion. While Delhi’s bilateral trade with Moscow also grew rapidly but it was approximately $66 billion only. Out of $66 billion India’s export was only about $ 4 billion. Not only this Russia has many needs which can be fulfilled by China while India has very less things to be exported to Russia, hence billions of Indian rupees are piling up in Russia.
India was concerned about rising Russian dependence on China as Beijing is threatening several countries including India, which has long standing border disputes. India has not forgotten when in June 2022 at Galwan Valley, Ladakh, India lost 20 soldiers including Colonel Santosh Babu (37), although China has not revealed figures about the death of its soldiers but according to a rough estimate about 40 Chinese soldiers were killed by valiant Indian army. Russia is still the biggest supplier of arms and ammunition to India and is a vital source of energy & space technology. Hence India is cautious that Russia does not become dependent on China. Putin also wants to show to India and the world that Russia is not a vassal state of China, and it is still a great power.
On the other hand, Russia is also concerned about the increasing friendship between India and western countries especially United States as U.S. has not only put several sanctions against Russia but also trying to isolate Moscow. But Putin had summit-level meetings with China, India & Turkey and not to forget his sojourns with friends like North Korea and Vietnam.
India is purchasing fighter jets from France, UAVs from U.S. and several other weaponry from U.S., Israel, France and other western countries. India has also joined Quadrilateral Security Dialogue popularly known as Quad which is a strategic security alliance between Australia, India, Japan and USA. Quad is basically against China which is threatening all these countries as well as other countries too. Russia is visibly happy on Modi’s visit and Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that west is feeling “jealous” about Russia India ties. The current visit has strengthened the relationship between both the nations and the discussions were held so that India can import more Russian oil and nuclear fuel for nuclear power plants.
Modi’s visit is important as it coincided with the NATO meetings began in Washington DC from 9 July. NATO meeting is held to mark the 75th anniversary of the western alliance which was constituted against the then Soviet Union. The meeting was held primarily to discuss Russian invasion on Ukraine in 2022. All 32 NATO members attended the meeting. The NATO countries are intensely against Moscow’s invasion on Ukraine, but India has not criticised Putin but told him that this is not time for war and the issue should be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy.
On 8th July, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took to his X (previous twitter) handle to post photographs of a children’s hospital in Kyiv, which was hit by Russian missile. Zelensky also criticised Modi Putin meeting and mentioned that “It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day.”
It is the first bilateral visit of Modi after he was sworn in for a third term, he broke the tradition of visiting South Asian neighbours first after taking oath of office. The visit gave a clear message to Putin that India honours its relationship with Moscow and has not joined western camp against Russia, although India’s collaboration with U.S. is at its highest level. India’s relations with U.S. are still strong and Delhi may like to project that because of its friendship with both Moscow and the West it can work as mediator between them.
U.S. wants that India should lessen its import of arms from Russia, but Moscow sometimes also transfers technology to India which western countries including U.S. do not transfer. Recently Rostec state-owned Russian arms firm announced that it would start manufacturing armor-piercing tank ammunition in India.
The visit of the Prime Minister of biggest democracy in the world gave a clear message that the effort of west in isolating Moscow is not giving desired results. Russian GDP is growing, and it is not losing war with Ukraine. Putin also gave a strong message to Modi that Russia is not dependent on China and honours friendship with India. Modi was received by First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Denis Manturov who also accompanied him in the same car up to the hotel. Manturov is senior to the Deputy Prime Minister who received Xi Jinping during his visit to Russia. Putin gave dinner to Modi at his official residence at Novo-Ogaryovo in a “private engagement”.
There was lot of grandeur on relationship between Moscow and Beijing and in two months Xi and Putin met twice and Putin also claimed that Russia China friendship was never so good. However, Putin kept the distance and also visited North Korea which was not liked by Xi Jinping. Russia is also giving full importance to the visit of Modi which is a signal to Xi that Russia is not dependent on China and India which has border dispute with China is also good friend of Russia. It is also a message to India that though Russia is close to China but for Russia Indian friendship is also important.
Russia is India’s dependable friend and several times in past Moscow rescued Delhi from difficult situations. Indo-Russian friendship rests on defence cooperation, supply of energy and transfer of science and technology. Russia also gave technical assistance to India for building nuclear power plants. India’s efforts are that because of sanctions from the west situation should not backfire for India and China should not end up as Russia’s only friend.
Russia has agreed to discharge all Indians working in Russian Army when Modi raised this issue with Putin at a private dinner hosted by the later. Modi also told that in last 10 years he came six times to Russia. Modi and Putin met 16 times in last 10 years. Russia conferred highest civilian honour to Modi, the Order of St Andrew the Apostle. The award was conferred in 2019 but given on 9 July in a special ceremony. The order was presented to Modi because of his distinguished contribution to the development of a privileged strategic partnership between both the countries.
A total of nine MOUs were signed during the visit. Modi discussed the delay of supply of spare parts as well as about the delivery of remaining S-400 anti-missile defence system.
Modi also gave some tough suggestions to Putin; he made a direct appeal to end the Ukraine war. Modi also mentioned that no solution can be found in the battleground and when innocent children die, it tears the heart. The message was not only to Putin but also to the west. In nutshell Modi was successful in giving the message to west that India is pursuing the policy of non-alignment while Putin also made it clear that Russia is not dependent on China, and it is a powerful country and honours its friendship with India. However, the visit helped Russia to show the west that it cannot isolate it. Modi also gave a message that India has close relations with Russia as well as with west hence it can be useful in settlement of Russia-Ukraine war.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
