- Promises to Tackle Economic Crisis
- Vows Anti-Corruption Drive
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 02 October 2024. In a stunning political upset, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), was elected as the President of Sri Lanka, defeating long-established political figures in a tight race. Dissanayake, popularly known as AKD, secured his victory in the second round of counting on September 21, 2024, after none of the candidates managed to achieve a majority in the first round. The election marked a turning point for Sri Lanka, with the masses embracing Dissanayake’s promises of corruption-free governance, economic reforms, and a break from the dynastic politics that have dominated the country for years. His victory comes in the wake of widespread public discontent following the island nation’s severe economic crisis in 2022.
Dissanayake’s campaign, while rooted in anti-corruption and economic reform, did not overtly push the party’s Marxist ideology. Instead, he focused on addressing widespread corruption, high taxes, and the failing economy that had crippled the nation. This election took place following the 2022 economic crisis, which led to mass protests that ultimately ousted former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. In his campaign, Dissanayake promised to revitalize key sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and technology, aiming to create jobs and rebuild the economy. A major plank of his platform was to renegotiate the country’s terms with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as the harsh austerity measures have disproportionately affected Sri Lanka’s poor. His stance on the IMF deal and commitment to reducing taxes has raised concerns among investors, as it could disrupt the slow but ongoing recovery from the economic downturn.
Although the election was peaceful, with a heavy police presence and curfews imposed to prevent unrest, the political landscape of Sri Lanka is set for further turbulence. Dissanayake’s JVP, historically rooted in Marxist and Sinhala nationalist ideologies, has opposed deals with international players like the IMF and has been critical of foreign investments that it perceives as detrimental to Sri Lanka’s sovereignty. The party has also been wary of Indian influence, opposing several Indian-backed projects, including infrastructure deals in Colombo and Trincomalee. However, there are indications that JVP may be softening its stance on India, recognizing its pivotal role in regional geopolitics and economic stability.
Rohana Wijeweera founded JVP in 1965. His worldview was leftist, and he attended Patrice Lumumba International University in Moscow as a student. Upon his return from Moscow, he became a member of the Maoist Ceylon Communist Party. Wijeweera abandoned the Communist Party and founded the JVP because he wished to impose a socialist government in Sri Lanka. The JVP ran an armed insurrection in April 1971 after leaving Sirima Bandaranaike’s Marxist United Front, which it had supported before the 1970 election. The government of Sri Lanka was aware of the revolt beforehand, yet it did little to stop it. After the government appealed for international aid, Indian troops put an end to the uprising, arresting over 15,000 JVP followers and killing over a thousand people.
India, mindful of its complex relations with Sri Lanka, has extended diplomatic goodwill toward the new administration. Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar have met with Dissanayake before the election, seeking to ensure that bilateral ties remain strong regardless of the political transition. Despite his party’s historical reservations about India, Dissanayake is seen as pragmatic, and during his campaign, he acknowledged India’s support during Sri Lanka’s financial collapse in 2022.
The majority Sinhala population harboured strong anti-India sentiment as a result of India’s role in ending the conflict. When Sri Lankan forces launched an attack against the LTTE and its leader Velupillai Prabhakaran in 1987, the Indian Air Force airdropped supplies to the Tamil majority north of Sri Lanka under Operation Poomalai. This action was met with resistance. The JVP objected when India dispatched troops to Sri Lanka, and the majority Sinhalese people supported them. The JVP started a violent protest campaign, mostly directed at government employees, police officers, teachers, and Sinhalese supporters of the government. The government also employed physical force to put an end to the insurgency, which lasted until 1989 and claimed over 60,000 lives.
The JVP then entered the political mainstream in 1990 and took part in elections for both provincial and parliamentary councils. Dissanayake formed a coalition with 25 organisations in 2015, including civil society organisations and NGOs. The National Liberation Movement (NPP) was the new name given to the coalition, and JVP ran for office using it.
The Sinhala nationalist JVP views India as an aggressive nation that seeks to colonise Sri Lanka. The party views the IMF agreement as anti-poor and is opposed to it. It also opposes foreign players and selling national holdings. It was against the Adani group receiving a 49% share in the East Container Terminal in Colombo. It was against the establishment of an oil tank farm in Trincomalee, the wind farm deal with Adani, and the entry and growth of Indian Oil Corporation into the nation. It was also against China purchasing Hambantota Port. India also came to the realisation that opposition leaders are crucial, however it had to learn this the hard way in Bangladesh and the Maldives.
The head of the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance, Dissanayake, received an official invitation from India on February 5. Two high-ranking government officials accompanied him after he was greeted with a red-carpet reception upon his arrival in India. Dissanayake was also met by National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar. Analysts cited a Health Policy Institute survey predicting that 50% of respondents preferred Dissanayake to be president.
NSA Ajit Doval travelled to Sri Lanka on August 29th to attend the Colombo Security Conclave, he met separately with each of the four front-runners in the September 21st presidential election. These one-on-one discussions guaranteed that, should the administration shift under a new president, relations between Colombo and Delhi would not be jeopardised. Doval had a meeting with President Ranil Wickremesinghe, an independent contender for office. Additionally, he met JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Namal Rajapaksa of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), and Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB).
The visiting NSA spoke with Muslim and Tamil minorities in addition to political leaders. He told Tamil parties that their political strength has diminished due to internal disagreements. Working together will help Tamils advance in national politics since in democracies, numbers matter most. Sri Lanka watchers claim that JVP is shifting its stance and understanding that Delhi cannot be ignored by Colombo because India is not only Sri Lanka’s closest neighbour but also a powerful force in world politics and the economy.
Dissanayake, must boost the nation’s economy and lift millions of Sri Lankans out of poverty. The country’s appalling economic situation served as the primary catalyst for the 2022 revolt. The new president will oversee a $36 billion foreign debt, of which $7 billion is owed to China, the largest bilateral creditor. With just three MPs out of 225 seats, Dissanayake dissolved the legislature on September 24. The parliamentary election is scheduled for November 14 and would be convened on November 21.
Investors are concerned that the incoming president’s claims to cut taxes and review the terms of the IMF would stall the current development. Dissanayake must ensure that the nation’s economy grows, that local and foreign investors are effectively drawn in, and that market confidence is restored. The president ought to stay on the IMF program through 2027 in order to stabilise the nation’s economy, pay down debt, and assist the underprivileged. In order to lure in foreign capital and save the nation from its economic crisis, the recently elected President must strike a balance between China and India. Due to Sri Lanka’s location on one of the busiest shipping lanes, China and India are both attempting to assert more influence.
Dissanayake was congratulated on his win by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well as by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Few commentators asserted that Dissanayake might lean more towards Beijing since JVP shares more ideological similarities with China. But in the past, Colombo took on excessive Chinese debt, which was a major factor in the country’s economic collapse in 2022. India at that moment assisted Colombo in escaping the mess. Beijing announced shortly after Dissanayake assumed office that it would like to collaborate with the new administration to advance its development and collaboration in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Dissanayake needs to appease the pro-China and anti-India voters who supported him in the election.
Dissanayake is a forward-thinking leader who recognises India’s significance. He clarified that he has nothing against India. Prior to the elections, he travelled to India, where he also met Ajit Doval and Jaishankar. He quickly replied to the congratulatory message of Prime Minister Modi and pledged to collaborate. One of the first foreign guests following his election as the nation’s president was the Indian High Commissioner in Colombo. He said in a TV debate that India shipped vital materials and provided financial assistance to Sri Lanka in 2022. The prime minister of Sri Lanka, Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, is not anti-Indian; she attended Hindu College at Delhi University.
People in Sri Lanka are realising that, in 2022, India supported the nation but China did not. Now that Japan and India may collaborate for Sri Lanka’s growth, China’s influence will decline. India must express its worry that China is sending its spy ships to Sri Lanka in order to conduct cyberespionage against India. India, the region’s largest economy with the greatest rate of growth, is prepared to support Colombo. India, a democratic nation, respects the outcome of the election, is prepared to collaborate with the incoming president, and will not support any one political party or candidate.
Amid these challenges, Dissanayake has dissolved the parliament. He will need to secure broader political backing to enact his economic reforms and realize his vision for a more equitable and corruption-free Sri Lanka. His leadership will also be crucial in managing Sri Lanka’s delicate geopolitical balancing act between India and China, two powers vying for influence in the strategically located island nation.
Dissanayake’s victory ushers in a new era for Sri Lanka as he seeks to steer the nation through a deep economic crisis while addressing long-standing grievances about corruption and dynastic politics. His government will face critical challenges, from managing foreign debt and renegotiating IMF terms to navigating Sri Lanka’s geopolitical ties with India and China. The newly elected president, Dissanayake’s ability to implement his ambitious reforms and maintain political stability will shape Sri Lanka’s future for years to come.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and permanent member of United Services Institute of India and Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
