By Col (Dr.) NB Saxena(Retd.)
New Delhi. 02 March 2022. Today is the seventh day of the Russian offensive in Ukraine and it seems that Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is still far from achieving his final aim to pin down Ukraine. The delay is causing growing sympathy for Ukraine due to massive propaganda by US and other western countries, notwithstanding the repeated emotional speeches by the President Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy, former actor and comedian who is the sixth and current President of Ukraine.
The Russian forces launched the Land, Air & Naval operation on 24th Feb 2022 at 05 A.M. local time warning the world not to interfere in it as it shall have dire consequences. The initial Russian attack was swift and clean and by 27th Feb 2022 they were in full control of area of Donetsk and Luhansk which . In addition the forward elements of force advancing towards Kyiv and Kharkiv reached within the striking distance of the capital Kyiv and the economic town of Kharkiv. In south the Naval forces from Crimean peninsula blocked the complete sea route and started knocking at the doorstep of Odesa. The situation on 27th Feb 2022 is shown in mustared colour in the map. This movement shocked the world and western countries came at the back foot leaving Ukraine to fight its battle all alone. At this time Putin probably thought that it is a matter of time when Ukraine will surrender and his plan of taking over Ukraine with minimum life and economical loss seemed to be successful. The situation was almost ninety percent in favour of Russia where USA was ready to evacuate Zelenskyy and world was expecting any time surrender by Ukraine.
At this crucial juncture it seems Putin went wrong in assessment probably due to incorrect inputs by his intelligence agencies and reaction of the world. He halted and slowed down his operations for twenty four hours thinking that he should give time to Ukrainian government and forces to surrender. This breather given by Russian forces gave an impression to Ukrainians and Zelenskyy that Russia had limited aim to liberate rebel controlled area and send a message to NATO that things can go worst if they interfere. Thinking that now Russians have halted and shall not move further, Zelenskyy decided to project himself as nationalistic leader. This action of his which he himself might not have thought got tremendous response from Ukrainian public and western countries. Suddenly the narrative and rhetoric projected him as the savior of democracy and humanity standing against Russia, which was hundred times more powerful than Ukraine. This changing scenario created a change in perception for the Ukrainian Army to dig in heels more firmly and motivated local militia and civilians to protect their motherland with dignity and honor. This break in operations by Putin to save lives and collateral damage to Ukrainian people and property has cost him strategically.
Russians probably realized this mistake when suddenly international pressure through UN and acceptance of Ukraine in European Union have become strong . In the present situation when the tables seem to have turned against Russia, Putin had two options, one to use specialized airborne and Heli borne forces to get in to Kyiv and Kharkov at the earliest and lay siege to these cities to stop supplies of arms & ammunition inside. Which it did today. Second to lay siege to all these big cities and move their mechanized forces in blitzkrieg movement to occupy the eastern bank along the river Dnipro as shown in map with red line. The built up area of Kyiv and Kharkov can be cleared in a deliberate and tactical move slowly and steadily. This it is doing now.
This strategy shall take another four to five days operation divide Ukraine in two parts and then declare the Eastern Ukraine independent under Russian control country and leave Western Ukraine for western nations. This shall help Russia to strategically secure her western border where land locked Western Ukraine shall be just a European territory while Eastern Ukraine shall act as buffer state for Russia.
This war will go into military history as one which could have been totally one-sided and the shortest but it seems resistance from the smaller nation was underestimated resulting into a military strategy gone wrong.
(Col (Dr.)NB Saxena (Retd.) is a Delhi-based strategic analyst who commanded his regiment during Kargil War.. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
