- A slide from democratic norms
- Endorses rule of terror
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 14 December 2023. Hail the dictator and shun democracy, is the theory China has been following with all elan’. Came December and all eyes were once more on China and this time for reiterating it’s faith in the self-proclaimed dictum-militants justified rulers. In first week of December 2023 Beijing recognised the status of Ambassador to Taliban nominee Asadullah Bilal Karimi, thereby becoming the first country to bestow diplomatic status and officially acknowledged the authenticity of Taliban ruled government in Afghanistan.
While addressing a press briefing on 5th December Wang Wenbin Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that “As a long-standing friendly neighbor of Afghanistan, China believes that Afghanistan should not be excluded from the international community”. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson also mentioned that Afghanistan would “build an open and inclusive political structure, adopt moderate and prudent domestic and foreign policies, firmly combat all forms of terrorist forces, develop friendly relations with other countries, especially with its neighbors, and integrate itself into the world community”.
China, Pakistan, and Russia continued maintaining their embassies in Kabul after American withdrawal and Taliban takeover. Though Beijing has not diplomatically recognised Taliban government but continued close cooperation with Kabul. The democratic world kept aloof from Taliban regime because of human right violations and atrocities on women.
Taliban have banned the girls from studying after class sixth and most of the women were prohibited working in private or public places. Taliban have refused to give freedom to women and maintained that they are working according to Islamic laws. They also refused to accept that there are terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan. The United Nations refused to give Afghanistan’s seat in UNO to Taliban because of their ill-treatment of women and not adhering to international laws.
In September Beijing sent its ambassador to Taliban ruled Kabul while other countries either kept the old ambassadors or appointed some one as head of mission as charge d’ affairs. In both these cases they do not have to present the credentials to the host government.
About 20 countries continued their diplomatic missions operational in Afghanistan even after the takeover of Taliban in August 2021. United States and few other Western countries have shifted their diplomatic missions to Qatar while countries like India, Russia, and Turkey have allowed Taliban to takeover diplomatic missions of Afghanistan and run the same on charge d’affairs level.
Beijing gave diplomatic recognition to Taliban government when Kabul and Islamabad have serious problems because of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is an alliance of few terrorist outfits constituted in 2007 to fight against Pakistan Army. TTP is also known as Pakistani Taliban and getting assistance from Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Pakistan blames Taliban government for providing safe haven to TTP and giving them assistance. The terror attacks on Pakistan security forces have considerably enhanced after Taliban came in power in Afghanistan.
China and Afghanistan share borders and Beijing is worried as East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) which is a banned terrorist organisation took shelter in Afghanistan near China border and from there it creates trouble in Xinjiang province of China where Uighur Muslims are fighting for an independent nation. Beijing has been pressing Kabul to take stringent action against the terrorist outfits which assist terrorist organisations especially Muslim terrorist organisations in Xinjiang province. Afghanistan Ambassador Karimi assured China that “there is no threat to anyone from the territory of Afghanistan, and regional stability and security is in the interest of all.” Karimi who is in his early 30s was deputy spokesman of information ministry of Taliban government.
The world is not recognising the present Taliban government in Afghanistan hence the country’s economic condition is deteriorating. Beijing is afraid that the country might plummet in turmoil again, and pro Uighur terrorist groups start assisting their counterparts in China.
Beijing had also invited Taliban delegates to attend global Belt and Road Forum held in Beijing on October 17 & 18. It was the first opportunity to Taliban delegates to attend multilateral gathering after grabbing power. Post US withdrawal followed by the fall of President Ashraf Ghani’s government in 2021 and taking over of the governance by Taliban, it became essential for China and other neighbouring countries to deal with Taliban government though no neighbouring country except Pakistan wanted Taliban to come back to power in Afghanistan. However now Islamabad must also be repenting as the present Taliban government is assisting TTP.
China is worried because of growing influence of several terrorist outfits especially Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) in Afghanistan. Beijing does not want that East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) should become strong in Afghanistan as it fuels secessionism and make terrorist attacks in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China where about 12 million Uyghur Muslims reside. After takeover of Taliban in Afghanistan, China’s main object in Afghanistan is to prevent spread of terrorism as Beijing knows that terrorism would soon spread in its Muslim areas. China has about 20 million Muslims which is about 1 to 1.5 percent of Chinese population. Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan and even Iran are facing the same problem.China wants to secure itself through Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Russia established military base in Tajikistan is run by CSTO which provides security to Tajikistan government from terrorists entering from Afghanistan. China wants active assistance from Taliban in exterminating terrorist groups which help Uyghur Muslims as China is curbing their freedom movement with iron fist. Taliban government has already promised Beijing that it would not allow any assistance to Uyghur terrorist outfits from Afghanistan. Soon after Taliban came into power, they forcibly shifted Uyghur armed groups from Badakhshan Province which is near China border to Baghlan and Takhar provinces in central Afghanistan which is far off from Chinese borders. Taliban have not handed over any Uyghur terrorists to China because ideologically Uyghur terrorists are near Taliban and if Taliban would take any stringent action against them, they would lean towards IS-K. The possibility that few die hard Taliban support Uyghur terrorist outfits cannot be ruled out. Taliban would also like to use ETIM to pressurise Beijing in case of some trouble with China.
China also wants to exploit the mineral rich Afghanistan but for that China also needs to ensure the security of Chinese working in Afghanistan. Beijing is worried as several Chinese were killed in Pakistan and does not want same to happen in Afghanistan. Afghanistan has more than 1400 mineral fields and have coal, oil, copper, gold, iron ore, natural gas, lithium, zinc, and several other important minerals. According to a rough estimate the minerals are worth $1 trillion. China wants to extract them and recently Beijing signed a deal worth $10 billion for access to lithium deposits. China also signed a $3 billion agreement to develop Afghanistan’s copper deposit. Kabul also signed seven contracts worth $6.5 billion for mining and processing of gold, iron ore, lead etc. China’s assistance comes with strings and its loan terms are always stringent and several countries were unable to repay the loan. It appears that Kabul which is facing several sanctions may fall into the Chinese debt trap.
China has built a military base for Afghan Armed Forces in Wakhan District of Badakhshan Province of Afghanistan to strengthen counter-terrorism cooperation between both the countries. China also helped Afghanistan in establishing a mountain brigade in Badakhshan Province to fight terrorism. Afghan forces are also trained in China and Chinese soldiers patrol these areas.
It is a case of -I scratch your back, you scratch mine- as China needs help from Taliban in controlling assistance to Uyghur terrorist outfits while Kabul needs Chinese assistance to develop their economy. However, China will sign agreements but will not make significant long-term investments in Afghanistan till Taliban hands over some senior ETIM leaders residing in Afghanistan. China will also assess the capability of Taliban of controlling all terror groups especially IS-K operating from Afghanistan.
Presently Afghanistan is facing acute economic problems as USA and other Western countries have stopped financial assistance and also put sanctions. Kabul needs financial assistance from Beijing, while Beijing wants Kabul to control ETIM and other terrorist organisations assisting terrorist outfits operating in China. China also wants that Kabul should join BRI as well as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. China also requires mineral resources of war-torn Afghanistan.
However, there are several glitches between developing Afghanistan China relations. China’s financial assistance is always a debt-trap, and it becomes difficult to repay the loan. As Taliban conquered Kabul through terrorism, it would be difficult for them to justify long-term relations with China which is victimising millions of Muslims in the country. The security of Chinese personnel working in Afghanistan would always be in danger and there would be deadly attacks on them. These attacks would also create ill-will between both the countries. It is very difficult for Taliban government to control terrorism in Afghanistan hence China would not invest much in the country as it understands that investments are not safe in Afghanistan. At present the relations between Kabul and Islamabad are also tense hence Pakistan would never like cordial relations between Afghanistan and China. China has the culprit police and expects security within its borders. Great expectations indeed.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
