By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 08 August 2024. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has prompted numerous countries, including China and India, to seek a mediator role to resolve the conflict. Recently, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s high-profile visit to Russia and his planned forthcoming visit to Ukraine have brought attention to India’s potential as a key negotiator. However, this diplomatic effort has received mixed reactions from the international community, particularly from the West. India’s strategic position, its diplomatic efforts, and the challenges it faces in mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict do make it an important arbitrator, but will it be a successful, is the million-dollar question.
All eyes were on Modi when he was in Moscow last month for the 22nd India-Russia Annual Summit with President Putin. It was Modi’s first visit to Russia after the break of Russia-Ukraine war. If speculations are to be believed then Modi is planning to visit Ukraine in last week of August 2024.
Modi’s travel to Russia drew harsh criticism from the West, and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy called it “a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts.” Modi’s visit was a “disappointment” in terms of “symbolism and timing,” according to Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, and Jake Sullivan, the United States’ National Security Advisor (NSA). India has been under heavy fire from the United States and its allies for its oil imports from Russia and its refusal to publicly denounce Russia for its invasion on Ukraine. The West believes that India is impeding their attempts to economically undermine Russia and isolate Moscow. Despite the fact that India is not protesting, analysts assert that Modi’s visit to Ukraine is to relieve pressure from the West.
India finds itself in a precarious situation, unable to abandon its venerable and long-standing ally, Russia. In the past, the USSR supported India while the US was totally backing Pakistan, India’s fiercest adversary. When Modi recently visited Russia, President Putin gave him a hearty welcome. Additionally, Russia transfers technology to India that the United States and other nations do not. But Moscow’s reliance on Beijing has grown significantly as a result of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the numerous sanctions imposed by the West.
China and India dispute span borders but Beijing refuses to address border disputes and continues to claim multiple sections of Indian land. India made an effort to resolve the border conflict, but China prefers that India should ignore the border dispute and keep importing commodities from China and filling its coffers with foreign exchange. In 1962, India and China fought a war and later there were multiple conflicts and standoffs between the two nations. In addition to this China considers India its adversary in the region hence tries to win over its neighbours. Recently President Xi Jinping did not give much time to the visiting Bangladesh Prime Minister and her visit was not properly covered because she came to India twice in a very short interval.
In view of enmity with China and Chinese closeness with Russia, India has to inculcate friendship with U.S. and other countries. India became member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, commonly known as the Quad which is an alliance of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. The member countries claim that Quad is for Pacific Islands, Indian Ocean Region (IOR), South East Asia nonetheless Beijing alleges that this alliance is against China. India will not alienate itself from the west which is common ally against the expansionist adversary.
The result of U.S. Presidential elections is also important. If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, then the policies of President Biden would continue however if former President Trump becomes President, then the pressure on Zelenskyy will soar. In this case Ukraine may agree for truce on less stringent terms and the chances of success of India’s mediation efforts increases.
China which has brought peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran is trying hard to work as an intermediary, but the west has already blamed that China is providing dual-use items to Russia in the current war with Ukraine. Hence Beijing is not considered as an impartial negotiator. However sometimes back Wang Yi Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs and a Politburo member had invited senior officials of Ukraine including Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to China. Chinese Foreign Minister stated that although at present conditions are not ripe for peace negotiations but both countries have shown willingness to negotiate. Victor Orban Prime Minister of Hungary also shuttled between Moscow, Kyiv and Beijing to find a diplomatic solution of the war between Russia and Ukraine, but the west rejected him as he was close to Putin.
The attitude of Washington is also not clear about India working as a negotiator between Moscow and Kyiv, although U.S. would prefer India’s mediation than China’s intervention. Modi clearly told Putin that peace is most important and the solution of war “cannot be found on the battlefield”. Foreign Minister Jaishankar also mentioned that “it’s important for everybody to do whatever they can to see if, in some way, something improves and a move out of the battlefield and into the conference table can take place.” On 14 June Modi and Zelenskyy had a bilateral meeting in Italy on the sidelines of G7 Summit. It was the second meeting as both the leaders had also met on the sidelines of G7 meeting in Japan, last year.
The visit is not currently being confirmed by the Ukrainian Embassy in India or the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). Nevertheless, MEA is attempting damage management in a number of ways. MEA representatives discussed the problem with a number of western officials. The Indian External Affairs Minister called the Ukrainian Foreign Minister and discussed “bilateral relationship”; the Ukrainian ambassador in New Delhi was also summoned for a discussion. The national security advisor for India spoke over the phone with their counterparts in the US and Ukraine. In the final week of March 2024, Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, paid a visit to India. It is expected that Modi would go through Poland to Ukraine, where he would also have a meeting with Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland.
Modi’s trip to Ukraine would be noteworthy in a number of ways. First of all, it would lessen the criticism from the West and Ukraine on Modi’s first visit following his third consecutive term as prime minister—unusual for a democratic nation. Although Modi has not disclosed anything about the idea, a spokesman for the Kremlin stated that Modi had presented Putin with a peace plan during his most recent visit to Russia. Jaishankar also worked out a proposal which Modi would discuss with Zelenskyy during his Ukraine visit. Russia and Ukraine are coming to terms with the fact that neither country can win this conflict, which has left Ukraine decimated and caused Russia to suffer both politically, internationally as well as militarily. Therefore, both nations may want to put an end to the hostilities. The issue is that Ukraine would demand the return of all captured territory, while Russia would prefer to keep all of the land it has taken. Ukraine to join NATO would remain the bone of contention.
It is anticipated that Modi would emphasise the need for diplomacy and talks to end the conflict during his visit to Ukraine. India’s reputation would rise in the world if it were to successfully resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but the question remains as to what offer India should make that would satisfy both parties and their supporters.
India’s potential role as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war highlights its complex position in global geopolitics. While India has longstanding ties with Russia, it also faces pressure from the West to take a more critical stance against Moscow. Prime Minister Modi’s recent diplomatic engagements with both Russia and Ukraine underscore India’s commitment to peace and diplomacy. However, the success of India’s mediation efforts will depend on its ability to present a viable peace proposal that satisfies both Russia and Ukraine, as well as their respective allies. If successful, India’s stature in the international arena could significantly rise, but the path to peace remains fraught with challenges.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
