By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 29 October 2024. The news which caught global attention and universal eyeballs was the meeting between Modi and Xi at Kazan in Russia recently. And cupid was played by President Vladimir Putin, who had two good friends on each side and wanted them to come try and resolve their differences. A mediator whom neither could ignore nor suspect of vested interest. Russia’s old and strong ties with both India and China and it’s friend in need status, paved the way for this ice breaking.
Putin hosted the sixteenth annual BRICS summit (22–24 October 2024) in Kazan Russia. The theme of the summit was “Strengthening Multilateralism for Fair Global Development and Security.” Bilateral meetings between Presidents of Russia and China and Russia and South Africa were held. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also held bilateral meetings with Russian President Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. BRICS meeting was important for Putin as Western block wanted to isolate Russia, but the meeting proved that U.S. and its allies miserably failed, and BRICS meeting was attended by representatives of 36 countries. Russia invited about 38 countries to attend the BRICS summit, there are reports that U.S. tried to pressurise and discourage these countries not to attend the summit. But the threat not worked well and except one or two countries others attended the summit. Several head of state including Prime Minister of India and President of China which are two most populous nations in the world attended the three-day summit.
From its inception as a five membered group of nations to an addition of new members like Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and United Arab Emirates, 13 nations have been added as partner countries of the BRICS. These countries included Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. Besides these countries several other countries also showed their interest in joining BRICS, which seems to be a group of choice for quite a big and important part of the globe. Russians publicised, that summit was the largest foreign policy event ever held in Russia.
However, the biggest highlight of the BRICS summit was the handshake between Modi and Xi after lapse of five years. It was the meeting of two nuclear armed neighbours, two population giants and two rising economies of the world. President Putin played a positive role in this historic meeting although there was no mention of Putin’s name behind this meeting but it is evident that Putin has been realising that the growing differences between China and India are slowly but steadily pushing Delhi towards the western camp and U.S. is trying to reap benefits of this animosity. U.S. is also pressurising India through Canada and by involving an Indian diplomat in attempt of assassination of a Khalistani terrorist.
This was affecting India-Russia relations too, as Delhi was noticing increasing Russian dependence on China because of sanctions imposed by west on Russia. Annual bilateral trade between China and Russia is $240 billion while India Russia bilateral trade is merely $65 billion. The border agreement, withdrawal and disengagement of troops and bilateral meetings between Modi and Xi Jinping end the suspicion between themselves and it will be a win-win situation for all the three nations. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Foreign Minister S Jayshankar met Chinese Foreign Minister and Polit Bureau member Wang Yi more than once and discussed the issues between India and China. In September Doval met Putin as well as Wang Yi in St. Petersburg in Russia.
Modi during the bilateral meet with Xi, accentuated the need of settlement of border dispute so that peace is restored. It was decided that the Special Representatives of both the countries would meet to resolve the India-China boundary issue. After the bilateral talks it is expected that more Chinese investment would come to India. At present India blocked direct flights between India and China, put restrictions on issuing visas to Chinese nationals and augmented scrutiny of Chinese investments.
After the agreement it is expected that both countries will try to normalise the relations, but here India has to be cautious as China is not trustworthy. It may be possible that as at present Chinese economy is not picking up, elders are criticising Xi Jinping, there are reports of internal disturbances in the country hence Xi Jinping agreed to withdraw the troops under pressure, but soon he may revert back. The statement of Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi about trust deficit and to have a cautious approach is timely. Same way the statement of India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman ahead of the bilateral meeting that India would place restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) is essential for the security of the country. China has declared that it would merge Taiwan in 2027 and the possibility that China may like to fix Taiwan first and because of it agreed for border agreement with India. Hence Taiwan for the first time did a night time military exercise. The drill shows that Taiwan is preparing for all eventualities. In nutshell though the present agreement with China is worth appreciating but India must remain prepared for any adverse action from China.
In addition to the India-China focus on BRICS, Russia and China portrayed the group as a counterpoise to the Western-dominated global order. After start of Russia Ukraine war Kremlin intensified its efforts to invite countries of Global South to attend BRICS. Kremlin made vigorous efforts to introduce a substitute to SWIFT so that it can evade western sanctions and continue trade with other countries. Putin indicted U.S. of “weaponizing” the dollar, he charged that as U.S. is not allowing Russia to use the dollar hence it has to search an alternative. However, India and Brazil have made it clear that BRICS is not anti-west, and they do not want to replace international institutions but they want to reform them. A payment system with the name of BRICS Pay was introduced which was an alternative to the Western interbank system SWIFT. In the Kazan Declaration need for reform of the United Nations and its Security Council was emphasised and the declaration mentioned that full participation should be given to the State of Palestine.
The BRICS joint declaration stressed on the “disruptive effect of unlawful unilateral coercive measures, including illegal sanctions, on the world economy, international trade, and the achievement of the sustainable development goals and reiterated that such measures undermine the UN Charter, the multilateral trading system, the sustainable development and environmental agreements. They also negatively impact economic growth, energy, health and food security exacerbating poverty and environmental challenges.”
The joint declaration also mentioned that there are “widespread benefits of faster, low cost, more efficient, transparent, safe and inclusive cross-border payment instruments built upon the principle of minimizing trade barriers and non-discriminatory access. We welcome the use of local currencies in financial transactions between BRICS countries and their trading partners”.
The “no-limit” cooperation between Putin and Xi was reaffirmed through bilateral meeting between them. Xi also claimed that China and Brazil forwarded a peace plan to end Russia Ukraine war, but the plan was rejected by Ukraine. Xi also stated that “We must uphold the three key principles: no expansion of the battlefields, no escalation of hostilities, and no fanning flames and strive for swift de-escalation of the situation.”
India reaffirmed its close ties with Russia despite the latter’s dependence on China because of sanctions imposed by west and its effort to isolate Russia. West also tried that India condemn Russia but Delhi without condemning Moscow stressed the need of a peaceful settlement. Modi said that “We support dialogue and diplomacy, not war”.
As India is suffering because of cross-border terrorism hence Modi also mentioned that “We all have to be united and cooperate strongly to deal with terrorism and terror financing. There is no place for double standards on such a serious issue. We should take active steps to prevent radicalization among the youth of our countries. We have to work together on the pending issue of the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism in the UN”. Modi’s comments were also a hint to China as Beijing in past blocked the designation of Pakistan-based terrorist Sajid Mir as a global terrorist by UN Security Council. Modi also mentioned about the danger of cyber security and need to regulate the artificial intelligence (AI). Modi also stressed about the need of reforms in UN Security Council, multilateral development banks and World Trade Organisation (WTO).
Russia and China are trying to project BRICS against the west, but Modi made it clear that BRICS is not trying to substitute the present global institutions, but it wants to reform the global institutions. Modi made it clear that “As we take our efforts forward in BRICS, we must be careful to ensure that this organisation does not acquire the image of one that is trying to replace global institutions, instead of being perceived as one that wishes to reform them”. Modi reaffirmed India’s commitment towards Global South. India also raised the voice of Global South at the time of its presidency of G-20.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
